Strength of schedule and some sour stats
Rich Linde, 24 September 2008
I’m not so sure that the
Huskies’ early schedule was as tough as some people are saying. Oregon
lost to Boise State last Saturday, and UW did play BYU close to the vest
with a late opportunity to win. (BTW, Oklahoma uses the SEC formula for
winning, as do the Trojans. Think, defensive front four, with its
ability to stop the run and garner some sacks.)
Would the Cougars be in the top 25 if the
Huskies had beaten them, say with a two-point conversion? If so, the
statistics we're quoting would be practically the same and BYU would be
considered a "mini me" when looking back at the opposition.
Remember the old days when Oregon and BYU
were considered winnable games.
With this question of strength of schedule in mind, the Huskies’
statistics are an abomination, assuming the worst case, that is, that
their first two foes weren't as strong as they were made out to be.
Of the 17
statistics listed on the NCAA website, 11 of the Huskies' stats are at
100 and beyond in national ranking. Seven of those 11 are in the 116 to
119 category, this out of 119 teams. See Table 1 below for some specific
data and notice the last three teams and their separation from the rest
of the Pac-10.
The Huskies have yet to be intercepted this season, yet they are tied for
80th in turnover margin.
The Huskies rank 119th in punt returns, with an average of -1 yard per
return.
But if the conference is weak, duh, it figures the Dawgs will pick up some
wins when they play the conference teams. Right?
The stats say no. The Dawgs rank last in the conference in 8 out of the
17 NCAA categories, next to last in 3 categories, 8th in three, 7th in two
and the beat goes on. The statistics are so bad that games against UCLA
and WSU appear to be the only winnable ones.
The non-conference game against Notre Dame is a long shot.
So, will the Huskies
beat Stanford this Saturday? Yep, if they can stop RB Toby Gerhart,
while improving their rushing defense number, which, currently, ranks
100th in the nation. Also, some sacks are in order. (See "SF" below).
Table 1. 11-stat comparator.
In our 11-stat comparator, Washington has an average national ranking of
106.8, out of 119 Division I-A teams, where TO=Total Offense, TD=Total
Defense, RO=Rushing Offense, RD=Rushing Defense, PEO=Pass Efficiency
Offense, PED=Pass Efficiency Defense, SO=Scoring Offense, SD=Scoring
Defense, SF=Sacks For, SA=Sacks allowed, and TM=Turnover Margin.
Team |
TO |
TD |
RO |
RD |
PEO |
PED |
SO |
SD |
SF |
SA |
TM |
Avg |
USC |
18 |
2 |
39 |
6 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
1 |
6 |
9 |
6 |
10.6 |
Cal |
14 |
28 |
21 |
24 |
52 |
20 |
9 |
64 |
39 |
68 |
18 |
32.5 |
UA |
36 |
6 |
70 |
49 |
26 |
5 |
14 |
29 |
56 |
52 |
57 |
36.4 |
UO |
7 |
59 |
4 |
36 |
77 |
58 |
10 |
71 |
8 |
22 |
101 |
41.2 |
OSU |
27 |
49 |
83 |
88 |
56 |
31 |
54 |
92 |
98 |
44 |
80 |
63.8 |
ASU |
60 |
56 |
107 |
70 |
16 |
46 |
72 |
48 |
88 |
85 |
84 |
66.6 |
SU |
111 |
84 |
68 |
55 |
116 |
88 |
79 |
82 |
10 |
68 |
75 |
76 |
WSU |
82 |
97 |
84 |
117 |
108 |
34 |
92 |
114 |
88 |
109 |
116 |
94.6 |
UCLA |
117 |
92 |
117 |
82 |
113 |
93 |
114 |
109 |
98 |
68 |
111 |
101.3 |
UW |
99 |
118 |
100 |
111 |
90 |
118 |
107 |
116 |
118 |
118 |
80 |
106.8 |