Strength of schedule and some sour stats
Rich Linde, 24 September 2008

I’m not so sure that the Huskies’ early schedule was as tough as some people are saying. Oregon lost to Boise State last Saturday, and UW did play BYU close to the vest with a late opportunity to win. (BTW, Oklahoma uses the SEC formula for winning, as do the Trojans. Think, defensive front four, with its ability to stop the run and garner some sacks.)

Would the Cougars be in the top 25 if the Huskies had beaten them, say with a two-point conversion? If so, the statistics we're quoting would be practically the same and BYU would be considered a "mini me" when looking back at the opposition.

Remember the old days when Oregon and BYU were considered winnable games.

With this question of strength of schedule in mind, the Huskies’ statistics are an abomination, assuming the worst case, that is, that their first two foes weren't as strong as they were made out to be. 

Of the 17 statistics listed on the NCAA website, 11 of the Huskies' stats are at 100 and beyond in national ranking. Seven of those 11 are in the 116 to 119 category, this out of 119 teams. See Table 1 below for some specific data and notice the last three teams and their separation from the rest of the Pac-10.

The Huskies have yet to be intercepted this season, yet they are tied for 80th in turnover margin.

The Huskies rank 119th in punt returns, with an average of -1 yard per return.

But if the conference is weak, duh, it figures the Dawgs will pick up some wins when they play the conference teams. Right?

The stats say no. The Dawgs rank last in the conference in 8 out of the 17 NCAA categories, next to last in 3 categories, 8th in three, 7th in two and the beat goes on. The statistics are so bad that games against UCLA and WSU appear to be the only winnable ones.

The non-conference game against Notre Dame is a long shot.

So, will the Huskies beat Stanford this Saturday? Yep, if they can stop RB Toby Gerhart, while improving their rushing defense number, which, currently, ranks 100th in the nation. Also, some sacks are in order. (See "SF" below).

Table 1. 11-stat comparator.

In our 11-stat comparator, Washington has an average national ranking of 106.8, out of 119 Division I-A teams, where TO=Total Offense, TD=Total Defense, RO=Rushing Offense, RD=Rushing Defense, PEO=Pass Efficiency Offense, PED=Pass Efficiency Defense, SO=Scoring Offense, SD=Scoring Defense, SF=Sacks For, SA=Sacks allowed, and TM=Turnover Margin.

 

Team

TO

TD

RO

RD

PEO

PED

SO

SD

SF

SA

TM

Avg

USC	18	2	39	6	10	9	10	1	6	9	6	10.6
Cal	14	28	21	24	52	20	9	64	39	68	18	32.5
UA	36	6	70	49	26	5	14	29	56	52	57	36.4
UO	7	59	4	36	77	58	10	71	8	22	101	41.2
OSU	27	49	83	88	56	31	54	92	98	44	80	63.8
ASU	60	56	107	70	16	46	72	48	88	85	84	66.6
SU	111	84	68	55	116	88	79	82	10	68	75	76
WSU	82	97	84	117	108	34	92	114	88	109	116	94.6
UCLA	117	92	117	82	113	93	114	109	98	68	111	101.3
UW	99	118	100	111	90	118	107	116	118	118	80	106.8