Solar"sicks"ers Overcome Weather and Dawgs

Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington. On a cold stormy night, the Arizona Sun Devils overcame swirling winds and sheets of rain to beat the Washington Huskies 24-10.

The Seattle Times quoted Washington coach Chris Peterson as saying, "I thought our defense played really, really well. I’m proud of those guys for how hard they fought. And I'm proud of our offense as well. Obviously, it wasn’t efficient enough, it wasn’t good enough. I feel bad for Troy (Williams), being thrown into his first start and having to deal with winds that were tough. It’s hard enough being a brand-new offense against a really good defense, and then (add) in those conditions...I think the wind really surprised us. We started hearing reports coming in last night. We’re used to playing in the rain — we can handle that. But they (ASU) played better in the weather tonight than we did. We’re going against a really good defense and then to have to deal with that also was tough."

The wind was so bad it interfered with ESPN's satellite transmission and I had to turn to Bob Rondeau on radio for part of the game.

The coup de grâce: With three minutes left and the score knotted at 10, ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly threw a 7-yard touchdown pass to Gary Chambers, capping off a nine-play 75-yard drive.

The Good

-- Deontae Cooper and Shaq Thompson combined for 168 yards on 32 carries (5.2 ypc)
-- Shaq Thompson's 113 all-purpose yards.
-- Bob Rondeau's pronunciation of Hau'oli Kikaha's last name
-- Kikaha's 2 sacks and 6 tackles; Andrew Hudson registered 2 sacks and 10 tackles
-- Dawgs were only flagged four times for 30 yards
-- Held Devils to 2.4 yards per rushing attempt and 285 total yards
-- John Timu's 63-yard pick six
-- Defense's goal line stand after Williams' fumble on Dawgs' one-yard line

The Bad

-- Only 3.3 yards per rush
-- Gave up 5 sacks
-- Williams' PE of 98.75; his pick six and fumble
-- Converted 2 of 14 third downs
-- Lost the offensive line efficiency battle 144.248 to 126.631
-- Lost the turnover battle 3-1

-- Lost pass efficiency battle: 134.88 to 98.75
-- No offensive touchdowns


The Ugly

-- Scoreboard, Baby
-- Solar"sicks"ers: Solar = sun; sicks = pun on 666, the devil; google number 6 and the devil
-- Somebody told me I look like Roy Orbison in my shades and another like John Voight without???
-- When I was much younger, Donald O'Conner. Audrey like Shirley MacLaine. Family Pictures

The QB efficiency ratings on the game follow:

QB School PA C YDS I TD Eff. Rate
Taylor Kelly ASU 25 14 180 1 2 134.88
Troy Williams UW 26 18 139 2 0 98.75
               

Computing a hypothetical per game offensive line efficiency

Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its offensive line's penalty yards and its sacks allowed. That is,

OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards; SA = Sacks Allowed

UW Offensive line efficiency = 98.75 + 3.3* 20.57 + 0 - 15 -25 = 126.631

ASU Offensive line efficiency = 134.88 + 2.4 * 20.57 + 0 - 5 - 35 = 144.248

(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09 were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013 season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the value of the factor ypc * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the NFL's passer rating computation.

More specifically, the equation for OLE is a function of 10 metrics:

Pass attempts (PA)

Pass completions (PC)

Yards passing (TY)

Number of passing touchdowns (TD)

Number of interceptions (I)

Yards per carry (YPC; sack yardage figures into the calculation)

Rushing touchdowns (RT)

Offensive line penalty yards. (OLPY)

Sacks Allowed (SA)

The values for x and y (Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)

The complete equation is as follows:

OLE = (TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Complete Statistics

Team 1 2 3 4 Total

Arizona State

0 10 0 14 24

Washington

0 0 7 3 10

 

Category

ASU

UW

1. Ball Control                                                                                 

Time of Poss.

30:10 29:50

3rd-down conversions

3 of 15 2 of 14

4th-down conversions

0 of 3 0 of 1

First downs

14 19
Total Offensive Plays  68 72

2. Blocking and Tackling

Rushing Offense

105 151

Passing Offense

180 139

Pass Eff Offense

134.88 98.75

Total Offense

285 290

Sacks By

5 7

3. Mistakes

Penalties

5-20 4-30

Turnovers

1 3

4. Field Position

Kickoff Returns

1-11-0 4-67-0

Punt Returns

0-0-0 1-7-0

Punting average per punt

42.0 30.5

Average Yards Per Kickoff

56 52.7

Net Yards Per Kickoff

37.6 40.7

Kickoff touchbacks

1 1

5. Scoreboard, Baby

Field Goals

1-1 1-2

Redzone Offense

3-5 1-2

Points For

24 10

 

 

Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

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