Cal Finds Dawgs' D Un'BEAR'able

Memorial Stadium, 'Berzerkely', California. Highlighted by Shaq Thompson's 100-yard fumble return, Cyler Miles' 86-yard touchdown pass to John Ross, and a dominating defense, this in a clash with the California Golden Bears (4-2, 2-2), the Washington Huskies (5-1, 1-1) posted a 31-7 win.

 

The Good

-- Held to just 7 points, Cal had been averaging 50 points per game.
-- No turnovers; Cyler Miles is yet to throw an interception in 129 pass attempts
-- Shaq Thompson's 100-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown.
-- Lavon Coleman ran 15 times for 66 yards (4.4 ypc)
-- Dwaine Washington rushed 12 times for 53 yards (4.4 ypc)

-- The defense didn't bend, break or become mutilated
-- Totaled 384 yards to Cal's 368 yards.
-- Fourth touchdown this season for Thompson and his third fumble taken back for a score.
-- Miles' PE rating on the game of 189.08
-- Bob Rondeau's pronunciation of Hau'oli Kikaha's last name
-- Kikaha's three sacks and nine tackles
-- Won the offensive line efficiency battle 213.73 to 117.87
-- The defense forced five fumbles, recovering three of them, and sacked Jared Goff four times
-- Held Goff to a Pass Efficiency of 118.7, well below his 188.1 rating going into the game
-- Scoreboard, Baby


The Bad

-- Only 2.9 yards per rush
-- Gave up 2 sacks
-- No touchbacks out of six kickoffs; one kickoff was out of bounds

The Ugly

-- Perkins was ejected for targeting a defenseless player; could be suspended for the first half against Oregon next week if the call is upheld by the conference.

The QB efficiency ratings on the game follow:

QB School PA C YDS I TD Eff. Rate
Cyler Miles UW 29 22 273 0 3 189.08
Jared Goff Cal 51 35 304 0 0 118.7
               

Computing a hypothetical per game offensive line efficiency

Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its offensive line's penalty yards and its sacks allowed. That is,

OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards; SA = Sacks Allowed

UW Offensive line efficiency = 189.08 + 2.9*20.57 + 0*5.09 - 25 - 10 = 213.733

Cal Offensive line efficiency = 118.7 + 1.9*20.57 + 1*5.09 - 25 - 20 = 117.873

(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09 were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013 season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the value of the factor ypc * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the NFL's passer rating computation.

More specifically, the equation for OLE is a function of 10 metrics:

Pass attempts (PA)

Pass completions (PC)

Yards passing (TY)

Number of passing touchdowns (TD)

Number of interceptions (I)

Yards per carry (YPC; sack yardage figures into the calculation)

Rushing touchdowns (RT)

Offensive line penalty yards. (OLPY)

Sacks Allowed (SA)

The values for x and y (Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)

The complete equation is as follows:

OLE = (TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Complete Statistics

Team 1 2 3 4 Total

Washington

14 14 0 3 31

California

0 0 7 0 7

 

Area of concern

UW

CAL

1. Ball Control                                                                                 

Time of Poss.

27:09 32:51

3rd-down conversions

6 of 15 7 of 17

4th-down conversions

0 of 1 2 of 4

First downs

18 25
Total Offensive Plays  67 84

2. Blocking and Tackling

Rushing Offense

111 64

Passing Offense

273 304

Pass Eff Offense

189.08 118.7

Total Offense

384 368

Sacks By

4 2

3. Mistakes

Penalties

8-76 7-56

Turnovers

0 3

4. Field Position

Kickoff Returns

2-2-0 5-95-0

Punt Returns

3-9-0 1--3-0

Punting average per punt

39.8 44.7

Average Yards Per Kickoff

53.3 37.5

Net Yards Per Kickoff

37.5 36.5

Kickoff touchbacks

0 0

5. Scoreboard, Baby

Field Goals

1 of 2 0 of 0

Redzone Offense

2 of 3 1 of 4

Points For

31 7

 

 

Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

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