SECOND-HALF WOOF CAVES IN ON PANTHERS

Trailing 14-0 at half time, the Washington Huskies rode a second-half surge to beat the Georgia State Panthers 45-14 at Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington.

The Seattle Times quotes coach Chris Peterson as saying, "Letís start with the positive because Iím just such a positive guy: I thought the kidsí play in the second half was good, was inspiring, was the way football should be played. I thought the first half was about as bad a football as Iíve been around maybe ever. I want to give Georgia State credit; they were executing and doing a nice job. But it wasnít anything that we hadnít seen before, and for whatever reason the kids didnít show up to play in the first half, and thatís on me. So weíll analyze, weíll adjust and get íem going.Ē

The Good

-- Won the Offensive Line Efficiency battle: 225.638 to 112.089
-- Danny Shelton registered 1 sack and 13 tackles
-- No turnovers
-- Jeff Lindquist rushed 3 times for 35 yards and 2 touchdowns
-- John Timu's 35-yard pick-six
-- Three interceptions and a fumble recovery
-- Marcus Peters intercepted Nick Arbuckle twice
-- Held GSU to 68 yards rushing; UW rushed for 182 yards
-- GSU's Passing Efficiency (PE) was a meager 117.12 on the game
-- Coach Peterson is 4-0 in his first season at UW, matching Gil Dobie's start in 1908.
-- Outgained GSU 336 yards to 273
-- UW QB Cyler Miles passed for 3 tds; his PE was 154.95 on the game
-- UW went 6 for 6 in red zone

-- Returned 5 punts for 113 yards
-- The Huskies held Georgia State to just 42 yards of offense in the second half.
-- Scoreboard, baby

The Bad

-- Lost time of possession 36:18 to 23:42
-- Only 68 offensive plays against GSU's 75
-- Posted just one touchback on 8 kickoffs.
-- Gave up 3 sacks


The Ugly

-- In the first half UW was outgained by GSU (231 to 73 yards) and trailed 14-0 at intermission. The Panthers ran 48 plays to 27 for Washington and controlled the clock for 21 minutes.

The QB efficiency ratings on the game follow:

QB School PA C YDS I TD Eff. Rate
Cyler Miles UW 27 19 154 0 3 154.95
Nick Arbuckle GSU 33 21 194 3 2 114.84
Ronnie Bell GSU 1 1 11 0 0 192.40

Computing a hypothetical per game offensive line efficiency

Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its offensive line's penalty yards and its sacks allowed. That is,

OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards; SA = Sacks Allowed

UW Offensive line efficiency = 154.95 + 4.4*20.57 + 2*5.09 - 15 - 5*3 = 225.638

GSU  Offensive line efficiency = 117.12 + 1.7*20.57 + 0*5.09 - 20 - 5*4 = 112.089

(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09 were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013 season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the value of the factor ypc * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the NFL's passer rating computation.

More specifically, the equation for OLE is a function of 10 metrics:

Pass attempts (PA)

Pass completions (PC)

Yards passing (TY)

Number of passing touchdowns (TD)

Number of interceptions (I)

Yards per carry (YPC; sack yardage figures into the calculation)

Rushing touchdowns (RT)

Offensive line penalty yards. (OLPY)

Sacks Allowed (SA)

The values for x and y (Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)

The complete equation is as follows:

OLE = (TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Complete Statistics

Team 1 2 3 4 Total

Georgia State

0 14 0 0 14

Washington

0 0 21 24 45

 

Area of concern

GSU

UW

1. Ball Control                                                                                 

Time of Poss.

36:18 23:42

3rd-down conversions

5 of 17 6 of 14

4th-down conversions

2 of 2 1 of 2

First downs

17 17
Total Offensive Plays  75 68

2. Blocking and Tackling

Rushing Offense

68 182

Passing Offense

205 154

Pass Eff Offense

117.12 154.95

Total Offense

273 336

Sacks By

3-18 4-18

3. Mistakes

Penalties

4-25 6-53

Turnovers

4 0

4. Field Position

Kickoff Returns

7-107-0 1-6-0

Punt Returns

0-0-0 5-113-0

Punting average per punt

38.1 37.3

Average Yards Per Kickoff

48.3 60.8

Net Yards Per Kickoff

38.0 44.2

Kickoff touchbacks

1 1

5. Scoreboard, Baby

Field Goals

0-0 1-1

Redzone Offense

2-2 6-6

Points For

14 45

 

 

Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

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