TOO CLEVER BY HALF

With 7:36 remaining and the score tied, Washington tried a fake punt that went for no gain, giving Stanford a short field to score a go ahead touchdown in its 20-13 win at Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington.

The Huskies' offense was in such a funk at the time, it's doubtful it could have made hay with a fresh set of downs. The better choice would have been to pin the Tree deep in its own territory and hope for the defense to force a turnover or make a big play -- or, say, to capitalize on a big special teams' play on the ensuing two punts, assuming the Dawgs' defense had limited the Cards to a three and out after punting to them.

The Good

-- Korey Durkee punted 7 times for an average of 51.7 yards per punt.
-- No turnovers; Cyler Miles is yet to throw an interception in his 4 starts.
-- Shaq Thompson's 32-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown.
-- Lavon Coleman ran 14 times for 58 yards (4.1 ypc)
-- Defense bent but didn't break entirely
-- Dominated second-half Time of Possession, 18:11 to 11:49
-- Holding Kevin Hogan to a Pass Efficiency of 127.89, well below his 181.5 going into the game


The Bad

-- Only 81 yards rushing
-- Gave up 4 sacks
-- Penalized 10 times for 85 yards, one penalty nullifying a 100-yard kickoff return
-- Tree rushed for 186 yards
-- Ty Montgomery's 149 all-purpose yards.
-- Three consecutive three-and-outs to start game.
-- Lost first-half Time of Possession, 20:07 to 09:53


The Ugly

-- Lost the Offensive Line Efficiency battle: 219.659 to 96.597
-- Trying a fake punt against a dominating, smart special teams (i.e., too clever by half)
-- Posting only one offensive touchdown.
-- Scoreboard, baby; failed to fell Tree

The QB efficiency ratings on the game follow:

QB School PA C YDS I TD Eff. Rate
Cyler Miles UW 29 15 98 0 1 91.49
Jeff Lindquist UW 1 0 0 0 0 0.0
Kevin Hogan SU 26 17 178 1 1 127.89

Computing a hypothetical per game offensive line efficiency

Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its offensive line's penalty yards and its sacks allowed. That is,

OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards; SA = Sacks Allowed

UW Offensive line efficiency = 88.4 + 2.1*20.57 + 0*5.09 - 15 - 20 = 96.597

SU  Offensive line efficiency = 127.89 + 4.7*20.57 + 1*5.09 - 5 - 5 = 219.659

(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09 were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013 season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the value of the factor ypc * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the NFL's passer rating computation.

More specifically, the equation for OLE is a function of 10 metrics:

Pass attempts (PA)

Pass completions (PC)

Yards passing (TY)

Number of passing touchdowns (TD)

Number of interceptions (I)

Yards per carry (YPC; sack yardage figures into the calculation)

Rushing touchdowns (RT)

Offensive line penalty yards. (OLPY)

Sacks Allowed (SA)

The values for x and y (Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)

The complete equation is as follows:

OLE = (TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Complete Statistics

Team 1 2 3 4 Total

Stanford

3 10 0 7 20

Washington

0 13 0 0 13

 

Area of concern

SU

UW

1. Ball Control                                                                                 

Time of Poss.

31:56 28:04

3rd-down conversions

3 of 12 5 of 18

4th-down conversions

0 of 0 1 of 4

First downs

22 15
Total Offensive Plays  66 68

2. Blocking and Tackling

Rushing Offense

186 81

Passing Offense

178 98

Pass Eff Offense

127.89 88.4

Total Offense

364 179

Sacks By

4 1

3. Mistakes

Penalties

8-85 10-85

Turnovers

3 0

4. Field Position

Kickoff Returns

3-91-0 2-38-0

Punt Returns

1-2-0 3-6-0

Punting average per punt

41.6 48.5

Average Yards Per Kickoff

65.4 58.7

Net Yards Per Kickoff

42.8 28.3

Kickoff touchbacks

3-5 0-3

5. Scoreboard, Baby

Field Goals

2 of 3 0 of 0

Redzone Offense

4 of 5 0 of 0

Points For

20 13

 

 

Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

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