Dawgs Leave Illini ILL-and-I-NOIS-ed

Behind Shaq Thompson's 36-yard pick-6 and his 52-yard fumble return for a touchdown, the Washington Huskies (3-0) posted a 44-19 victory over Illinois in a donnybrook played at Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington.

Illinois (2-1) came into the game with an offensive-line-efficiency rating (OLE) of 199.51 compared to Washington's 224.07. See Table 1 below and the formula below.

Table 1. OLE as of September 11

UI 161.75 51.425 5.07 -14.0909 -5 199.1541
UW 118.7 102.85 20.36 -15.3409 -2.5 224.0691
         
           

Against Eastern Washington last week, the Huskies won the OLE rating battle (298.24 to 219.89) and also won that stat against Hawaii (177.63 to 155.58), in their first game of the season.

Against Illinois the Good far outnumber the Bad and Ugly:

The Good

-- Won the Offensive Line Efficiency battle: 247.9 to 147.55
-- Posted 6 sacks
-- Won the turnover battle 3-1
-- Shaq Thompson's 36-yard pick-6 and his 52-yard fumble return for a touchdown
-- Held Illinois to 72 yards rushing; Dawgs accumulated 245 yards on the ground
-- Made 8 of 16 third-down conversions; Illinois just 1 of 11
-- Coach Peterson won his third game of the season
-- Ran off 80 offensive plays to 57
-- UW QB Cyler Miles posted a 171.72 passing efficiency rating
-- UW kickers registered 3 touchbacks on 9 kickoffs

-- Cyler Miles connecting with receiver John Ross III on a 75-yard pass/td play that put UW ahead 14-3.
-- Hau’oli Kikaha recorded six tackles and three sacks.
-- Held UI to 279 yards passing
-- John Ross's 137 all-purpose yards
--  Van Winkle's 51-yard field goal
-- Scoreboard, baby

The Bad

-- Penalized 8 times for 73 yards

-- Illinois's 154.95 passing efficiency rating

The Ugly

-- Dawgs Left Illini ILL-and-I-NOIS-ed (My article's headline, punning the word annoyed))

The QB efficiency ratings on the game follow:

QB School PA C YDS I TD Eff. Rate
Cyler Miles UW 20 15 191 0 1 171.72
Marvin Hall UW 1 1 28 0 0 335.20
Jaydon Mickens UW 1 0 0 0 0 0.0
               
Wes Lunt UI 26 16 230 1 2 153.54
Reilly O'Toole UI 5 4 49 0 0 162.32
Josh Ferguson UI 0 0 0 0 0 0.0

Computing a hypothetical per game offensive line efficiency

Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its offensive line's penalty yards and its sacks allowed. That is,

OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards; SA = Sacks Allowed

UW Offensive line efficiency = 171.35 + 4.2*20.57 + 2*5.09 - 25 - 5 = 247.9

UI  Offensive line efficiency = 154.95 + 2.8*20.57 + 0*5.09 - 35 - 30 = 147.55

(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09 were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013 season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the value of the factor ypc * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the NFL's passer rating computation.

More specifically, the equation for OLE is a function of 10 metrics:

Pass attempts (PA)

Pass completions (PC)

Yards passing (TY)

Number of passing touchdowns (TD)

Number of interceptions (I)

Yards per carry (YPC; sack yardage figures into the calculation)

Rushing touchdowns (RT)

Offensive line penalty yards. (OLPY)

Sacks Allowed (SA)

The values for x and y (Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)

The complete equation is as follows:

OLE = (TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Complete Statistics

Team 1 2 3 4 Total

Illinois

3 9 7 0 19

Washington

21 17 0 6 44

 

Area of concern

UI

UW

1. Ball Control                                                                                 

Time of Poss.

25:47 34:13

3rd-down conversions

1 of 11 8 of 16

4th-down conversions

1 of 1 1 of 2

First downs

15 25
Total Offensive Plays  57 80

2. Blocking and Tackling

Rushing Offense

72 245

Passing Offense

279 219

Pass Eff Offense

154.95 171.35

Total Offense

351 464

Sacks By

1-9 6-29

3. Mistakes

Penalties

11-110 8-73

Turnovers

3 1

4. Field Position

Kickoff Returns

4-260 9-556

Punt Returns

7-362 4-140

Punting average per punt

51.7 35.0

Average Yards Per Kickoff

65.0 61.8

Net Yards Per Kickoff

35.2 36.0

Kickoff touchbacks

2 3

5. Scoreboard, Baby

Field Goals

1-1 3-3

Redzone Offense

2-3 4-4

Points For

19 44

 

 

Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

Original content related to this site,
including editorials, photos
and exclusive materials
© 4malamute.com, 2001-2013
All Rights Reserved