Ducks "Quack" Dawgs' D

Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon. Wearing throwback uniforms to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the 'pick,' No. 9 Oregon extended its winning streak over Washington to 11 straight games with a 45-20 victory on Saturday night.

The uniforms were a throwback to the 1994 season, when Kenny Wheaton intercepted Washington quarterback Damon Huard and returned it 97 yards to seal a win for the Ducks, who would go onto win the Pac-10 that season. That play would forever be known as “The Pick.”

More important to Oregon's turnabout in their series with the Huskies were the sanctions levied against UW in 1993, occurring a year earlier than the so-called 'pick', see "Washington Huskies Get Tough Pac 10 Penalties : Sports: Football coach resigns after conference imposes sanctions for violations of NCAA rules." Also, see my article on the subject: "Tabloid Times."

I believe the media’s coverage of UW's "crimes" was overblown and decidedly unfair; it created a hysterical hue and cry almost impossible to quell. It reminded me of the hatchet job done on Gene Bartow, a former UCLA basketball coach. Needless to say Oregon had some help from its Pac-10 buddies that had far more significance to its series with Washington than Wheaton's pick six and its celebration, which is so much gobbledygook and rigmarole.

The Good

-- With no running game to ease the pressure, Cyler Miles had a credible PE of 113.6
-- Field goals of 33 and 40 yards, with no misses.
-- Deontae Cooper ran 5 times for 23 yards and caught six passes for 48 yards and a touchdown.
-- Koree Durkee averaged 44.0 yards on three punts.
-- John Ross's 119 all-purpose yards.

-- Converted 9 of 18 third downs and went 3 for 3 on fourth down conversions; 3 for 3 in red zone
-- Bob Rondeau's pronunciation of Hau'oli Kikaha's last name
-- Kikaha's 2.5 sacks and ten tackles
-- Was flagged only four times for 24 yards

The Bad

-- Only 3.7 yards per rush and 133 yards rushing
-- Gave up 2 sacks
-- No touchbacks out of four kickoffs
-- Ducks quacked Dawgs' D; QB Marcus Mariota and RB Royce Freeman had field days
-- Lost the offensive line efficiency battle 244.118 to 178.499
-- Lost the turnover battle 2-0

-- Gave up 544 total yards, 218 on ground

The Ugly

-- Scoreboard, Baby
-- Eleven straight losses to Oregon

The QB efficiency ratings on the game follow:

QB School PA C YDS I TD Eff. Rate
Cyler Miles UW 28 19 137 1 1 113.6
Troy Williams UW 10 5 37 0 0 81.08
Marcus Mariota UO 38 24 336 0 2 178.25

Computing a hypothetical per game offensive line efficiency

Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its offensive line's penalty yards and its sacks allowed. That is,

OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards; SA = Sacks Allowed

UW Offensive line efficiency = 107.25 + 3.7 * 20.57 + 5.09 - 0 - 10 = 178.499

UO Offensive line efficiency = 178.25 + 4.4 * 20.57 + 4*5.09 - 30 - 15 = 244.118

(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09 were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013 season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the value of the factor ypc * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the NFL's passer rating computation.

More specifically, the equation for OLE is a function of 10 metrics:

Pass attempts (PA)

Pass completions (PC)

Yards passing (TY)

Number of passing touchdowns (TD)

Number of interceptions (I)

Yards per carry (YPC; sack yardage figures into the calculation)

Rushing touchdowns (RT)

Offensive line penalty yards. (OLPY)

Sacks Allowed (SA)

The values for x and y (Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)

The complete equation is as follows:

OLE = (TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Complete Statistics

Team 1 2 3 4 Total

Washington

6 0 7 7 20

Oregon

7 21 7 10 45

 

Category

UW

UO

1. Ball Control                                                                                 

Time of Poss.

29:27 30:33

3rd-down conversions

9 of 18 11 of 18

4th-down conversions

3 of 3 3 of 4

First downs

20 29
Total Offensive Plays  74 83

2. Blocking and Tackling

Rushing Offense

133 218

Passing Offense

184 336

Pass Eff Offense

107.25 178.25

Total Offense

317 554

Sacks By

3 2

3. Mistakes

Penalties

4-24 7-90

Turnovers

2 0

4. Field Position

Kickoff Returns

3-60-0 5-94-0

Punt Returns

1-4-0 1-1-0

Punting average per punt

43.2 36.0

Average Yards Per Kickoff

62.5 65.0

Net Yards Per Kickoff

39.0 41.9

Kickoff touchbacks

0 5

5. Scoreboard, Baby

Field Goals

2-2 1-2

Redzone Offense

3-3 5-6

Points For

20 45

 

 

Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

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