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One more year
From a team perspective, total offense is up by 30% and total defense has improved by 14%. Run defense has improved by a 38% margin, although pass defense is down by12%. More significantly, however, pass-efficiency defense has improved by 10%. The team averaged 12.9 points more per game than it did last year and gave up 11.9 fewer points per game. A side-by-side statistical comparison of last year's team with this year's team is shown by the data in Table 2 below; the categorical comparison or summary of the data in Table 2 appears in Table 1. Locker's individual passing stats over his career at Washington appear in Table 3; his improvement made in career stats over the 2009 season (shown in Figures 1 and 2) are dramatic, both figures heading north. As you would imagine, in that we're comparing a team that went 5-7 this year against a team that went 0-12 last year, the statistics should have improved markedly, as should have Locker's when measured against his first two years with the Huskies. And they all did. Of the 26 comparable statistical entries shown by Table 2, Steve Sarkisian's team (2009) beats the 2008 team coached by Tyrone Willingham in 21 out of 26 entries. Of the 5 statistical categories appearing in Table 1, the 2009 team wins 3, loses 1 and ties 1. Table 1. Category Summary (summary of stats in Table 2 below)
Much of the marked improvement in statistics, as well as the win column, is due to a healthy Locker, who started every game this season; last year he broke the thumb on his throwing hand in the fourth game of the season, which sidelined him for the remainder of the year. After Locker was sidelined last season, did the rest of the team pack it in, as some people think? The statistics lend some credence to that notion. Should Locker turn pro? At his point in time, Locker leads the conference in total offense, averaging 265.7 yards per game. Although seven other teams have one more game to play, I doubt if this number is in jeopardy. Locker threw for 2800 yards this season, while accounting for 388 yards on the ground, which amounts to 71% of UW's offense. He completed 58.2% of his passes and has a passing-efficiency rating of 129.75 that ranks 60th in the country. Over his career at UW, he's completed 53.3% of his passes, with an efficiency rating of 116.82. In the two seasons prior to this one, he'd completed just 48.7% of his passes. His efficiency rating for those two seasons (2007 and 2008) was 104.68. Some analysts were critical of Locker's throwing arm prior to this season, but not anymore. Last year, due to the spread option attack, this site, like everyone else's, called Locker the "Tim Tebow of the West." This year, with Washington operating out of a pro-style formation, we compared Locker with John Elway, based on our memory of Elway when he played for Stanford. (See Locker watch: big, bad John). Most likely, if he should play another year with the Dawgs, all of his numbers would likely improve, considering the added year of Sarkisian's and Doug Nussmeier's tutoring and mentoring. In addition, his fundamentals as a pro-style quarterback would likely benefit. Note Locker's steady improvement this year in his career pass-efficiency rating and career pass completion percentage. (See Figures 1 and 2).
Figure 1. Locker's improvement in career passing efficiency over the 2009 season.
Figure 2. Locker's improvement in career pass completion percentage over the 2009 season. However, improved individual statistics next season shouldn't make him more attractive to a pro team unless he won the Heisman Trophy, say, which would be a long shot for him playing on a team that is in the process of rebuilding. Locker is due to graduate this spring, as I understand, so staying another year won't mean that much from an academic standpoint if he has a football or baseball career in mind. With all the talk about the Huskies' tough schedule this season, it should be noted that the Dawgs played five conference games at home, with four of them on the road. The Huskies ended up winning five out of seven home games, four of them against conference opponents. Next season, the Huskies play five conference on the road and four at home. UW hasn't won a conference game on the road since it beat Stanford, 27-9, in November 2007. Among all the other considerations, ranging from finances to a possible injury, will the conference's tougher schedule have an impact on Locker's decision to either play for pay on Sundays or stay another year with the Huskies? In addition, should he stay, Locker will be competing next year in a league rife with improving quarterbacks, for example, Nick Foles of Arizona, Kevin Riley of Cal, Matt Barkley (USC), Jeremiah Masoli (Oregon), Andrew Luck (Stanford) and Kevin Prince (UCLA). And then there is the money factor. Short of a compromise between the NFL Player's Association (NFLPA) and the team owners, the NFL's collective bargaining agreement is expected to end in 2010. Owners want an adjusted salary cap that includes a rookie salary cap, which is another variable for Locker to consider. Should he leave early and take what could be bigger payout? Now add the "2010 personal data dilemma" to his decision making. ;-) Note the exponential nature of Locker's career statistics, shown by Figures 1 and 2, which is a result of his first three games and last two home games against WSU and Cal. Those lines are likely to flatten out early next year because of a tough opening schedule. (A BYU road game, then Syracuse and Nebraska at home, followed by road games against Cal and USC). The point of all of this is that I can easily imagine a 1-4 start to next season, and Locker's numbers are affected by his team's play, as clearly shown by those two figures. Also note, that due to injury, Locker has missed playing in 9 out of a possible 37 games, or 24% of his Huskies' games. That adds up to 10 games missed (27%) if you count the two halves missed of the games in which he was injured. Click on the link below for the most highly touted college quarterbacks that may be available for the NFL draft. ESPN's draft expert thinks highly of Locker. The smart money says Locker will make himself available for the pro draft in April, for the following reasons:
For a different opinion, reference Hugh Millen's article that appeared in the Seattle Times. See "Percentages say Jake Locker should return to Washington." (Hmm, I wasn't aware that he'd left Washington;-)) Millen's data notwithstanding, the reasons for Locker staying are somewhat quixotic in nature rather than logical, but I'll give them a try. Editor's note: Hold the presses; according to gohuskies.com, Locker has decided to return to Washington for the 2010 season, so all of the above is moot. (14 Dec 09) An open letter to Jake. If you decide to leave a year early and declare for the NFL draft, the odds against the Huskies going to a bowl next year appear formidable. Jake, you know that. The rebuilding effort will on hold until Sark develops another quarterback. This year's backup quarterback, Ronnie Fouch, has completed 45% of his passes (with a PE of 84.73) over his career at Washington and like you, this year, is due for a makeover, next year, should you leave. As an alumnus and fan of the Dawgs, I hope you stay another year, but I can't imagine why you would --other than feeling a certain loyalty to the Husky nation, the coaching staff and your teammates. Ahem. Think loyalty, Jake, and the unfinished task at hand, that is, leading the resurgent Dawgs to a bowl game next year -- with possibly a Heisman trophy awarded for your noble deed. But then again, who could blame you for doing what's best for your future and, that is, go pro -- even though knowing that decision will tug at your heart every time you think about our Huskies and what could have been but what turned out to be. Think remorse, anguish and guilt, Jake. From Tebow to Elway to who knows whom...if you decide to stay, who knows who you'll be. Think, curiosity, but not the cat. Table 2. Statistical entries by category (ranking in Pac-10, columns 3 & 5)
1. Ball Control
2. Blocking and Tackling
3. Mistakes
4. Field Position
5. Scoreboard, Baby
Table 3. Jake Locker's 2009 stats *
* Note that Locker's passing stats listed on gohuskies.com and pac10.org are incorrect; he's thrown 395 passes, not 394. The correct figure can be obtained by adding his per game passing attempts. Also, see the NCAA website linked below. Black = 2007; purple = 2008; blue = 2009
Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com |
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From a statistical point
of view, how well did the Dawgs do this year when compared with last
year's team? Furthermore, have Jake Locker's individual statistics improved enough
this year to make him an even more attractive draft pick for a
professional team?
