BROWNING OUTSTANDING, RUN SUPPORT SHAKY

The following grades the Huskies' positional effort for the game against Utah State.

Click on this link for the statistics: Stats Utah State Game

Quarterback; Grade A -- Once again Coach Chris Peterson gave true freshman Jake Browning the keys to his brand new 2015 Dawgmobile; he drove it with precision, accuracy and poise, with just one hiccup.

Browning completed 22 of 31 passes for 368 yards, three touchdowns and one pick, his efficiency rating being an outstanding 185.52. His PE on the season is 160.0, a number that ranks fourth in the conference.

Throwing for 368 yards was the most ever by a Washington freshman and 11th most in school history.

"I'll tell you, he's doing a good job. ... It's a little bit like that teacher that's one step ahead of the student a little bit. We throw a lot at him, and he's got a lot on his plate and every now and again, something will show up," Washington coach Chris Petersen was quoted as saying. "But it is amazing. We won't slow down because of him."

In an article by Jeff Faraudo [Far] appearing in the San Jose Mercury News, he quotes Troy Taylor, Browning's coach at Folsom High, as saying "He's got the same quality as Jared (Goff) and Aaron Rogers and all the great ones -- the ability to feel the pocket and make minor adjustments and still keep your focus and throw it accurately."

According to Faraudo's article, Taylor ..."began coaching Browning as a 10-year old, and said he showed promising traits early. Browning has great focus, deflects attention to his teammates and maintains a calm disposition -- all qualities that Goff also boasts."

Offensive Line
; Grade C Plus: The Huskies Offensive Line Efficiency rating was 219.11 compared to the Aggies' 133.96. Whoever wins this stat usually wins the game. The OL is the most important positional unit on the team, which is why this stat tracks with wins and losses. (See the calculation below).

The Dawgs rushing numbers were paltry, just 74 yards; the running game averaged an anemic 2.1 yards per carry. Stats like these prophesy a dooms day scenario for UW's PAC-12 schedule, which starts with Cal next Saturday.

One positive note: the UW OL has had just one false start so far this season, and that was at BSU early in the game.

Pass Receivers: Grade A: 368 yards passing,16.7 yards per completion, and 3 passing touchdowns are impressive. Browning spread the wealth around, finding 7 different receivers.

Ball Carriers; Grade D minus: Only 74 yards rushing, averaging 2.1 YPC won't cut it in the PAC-12.

Special Teams: Grade A - minus: UW had 3 touchbacks out of 6 kickoffs, averaging 64.3 yards per kickoff, while netting 35.5 yards. The Dawgs averaged 52.5 yards per punt and downed 1 inside the 20. Tristan Vizcaino's TD run off a fake field goal attempt was one of the highlights of the game, that along with Dwayne Washington's 81-yard touchdown on a pass from Browning.

Defense; Grade B Plus: The defense yielded just 254 total yards and held the Aggies to 83 yards rushing. The defense limited starting QB Chuckie Keeton to a less-than satisfactory PE of 85.51. On the negative side, the pass rushers failed to sack Keeton; a less than adequate pass rush could turn into a major problem in PAC-12 play. UW has registered just three sacks in three games, while giving up six.

Coaching; Grade A minus: A win is a win.

Reference:

[Far] Faraudo, Jeff, "Goff gets passing grade from alum, " San Jose Mercury News, 23 Sep 2015
 

Computing a hypothetical per game offensive line efficiency

Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its offensive line's penalty yards and its sacks allowed. That is,

OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards; SA = Sacks Allowed

In the game against Utah State, the OLE's were:

UW Offensive line efficiency = 185.82 + 2.1*20.57 + 1*5.09 - 10 - 5 * 1 = 219.11.

Utah State Offensive line efficiency = 85.51 + 2.8*20.57 + 1*5.09 - 15 - 5 * 0 =  133.96

(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09 were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013 season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the value of the factor ypc * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the NFL's passer rating computation.

More specifically, the equation for OLE is a function of 10 metrics:

  • Pass attempts (PA)

  • Pass completions (PC)

  • Yards passing (TY)

  • Number of passing touchdowns (TD)

  • Number of interceptions (I)

  • Yards per carry (YPC; sack yardage figures into the calculation)

  • Rushing touchdowns (RT)

  • Offensive line penalty yards. (OLPY)

  • Sacks allowed (SA)

  • The values for x and y (Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)

The complete equation is as follows:

OLE = (TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA

Note that this hypothetical computation correlates with UW's won/lost record (9-4) for the 2013 season, with UW dominating the statistic in its 9 wins and losing the stat in its 4 losses.

 

 

Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

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