Dawgs out-muscled and outplayed
The following grades the Huskies' positional
effort for the game against the California Golden Bears.
Click on this link for the statistics:
Stats California Game
Quarterback; Grade D -- Once
again Coach Chris Peterson gave true freshman Jake Browning the keys to his
brand new 2015 Dawgmobile; for most of the game young Browning appeared to
be in way over his head. He should have been yanked early in the game --
faster than an infected tooth --but, then,
whom do you give the keys to?
The coaches might have inserted Jeff
Lindquist at the end of the first half for a Hail Mary rather than taking a
knee on the Dawgs' 41.
The Huskies turned the ball over five
times; Browning was picked off twice, fumbled the ball away, and was sacked
Jake completed 17 of 28 passes for 152 yards, and two picks, his
efficiency rating being a mediocre 92.03. His PE on the
season is 143.7, a number that ranks sixth in the conference.
outgained the Huskies 481 yards to 259 yards, dominated TOP 39:49 to 20:11,
and got off 92 plays to 55. On the whole they appeared to be the physically
At one point in the game Browning's efficiency rating was minus 66.7,
compared to Jared Goff’s 139.7
The Huskies played three freshmen on
the offensive line: Trey Adams LT, Jesse Soesbee, RG, and Kaleb McCary, RT.
Offensive Line; Grade B Minus:
The Huskies Offensive Line Efficiency rating was 154.49 compared to the
Golden Bears' 163.95. Whoever wins this stat usually wins the game. The OL is the
most important positional unit on the team, which is why this stat tracks
with wins and losses. (See the calculation below).
The Dawgs took a
7-3 lead at the end of the first quarter, marching 81 yards behind Dwayne
Washington's five consecutive rushes. On the game, Washington had 10 rushes
for 109 yards, averaging 10.9 yards per carry. He also caught three passes
for 19 yards.
The offense reminded me momentarily of the
Huskies game against
Hawaii in 2007, when they
jumped off to a 21-0 lead,
wielding a vicious ground game behind the running of Louis Rankin, Luke Kravitz
and Jake Locker. During the three scoring drives back then the Huskies rushed 18
Although Browning was flushed out of the pocket on
numerous occasions, my grade for the OL is based on the first quarter TD
drive. Obviously, my OL grade is too high.
One positive note: the
UW OL has had just one false start so far this season, and that was at BSU
early in the game.
Pass Receivers: Grade C: 152
yards passing, 8.9 yards per completion, and this without a touchdown pass
Carriers; Grade C: Only 107 yards rushing won't cut it in the
PAC-12, Washington's impressive run total notwithstanding.
Special Teams: Grade
B - minus: UW had
touchbacks out of 5 kickoffs, averaging 59.4 yards per kickoff, while
netting 40.8 yards. The Dawgs averaged 38.0 yards per punt. Cameron Van
Winkle booted a 36-yard field goal.
Defense; Grade C Plus:
The defense yielded 481 total yards but held Cal to 139 yards on the ground
(2.7 yards per carry). The defense was on the field for far too much of the
game thanks to a feckless offense. CB Sidney Jones recovered a Cal fumble
and ran it back 70 yards for a TD. The defense registered 5 sacks.
The coaches need more work in the weight room and some study time in
Suzzallo. Otherwise, a haunting by the ghostly image of Gil Dobie, along
with his paroxysms of anger, hangs over each of their heads.
Computing a hypothetical per
game offensive line efficiency
Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's
passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its offensive line's penalty yards
and its sacks allowed. That is,
OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA
Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x
and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards;
SA = Sacks Allowed
In the game against California, the OLE's
UW Offensive line efficiency = 92.03 + 4.0*20.57 +
2*5.09 - 5 - 5 * 5 = 154.49.
Cal's Offensive line efficiency = 143.32 +
2.7*20.57 + 1*5.09 - 15 - 5 * 5 = 163.95
(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09
were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be
equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for
the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013
season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in
the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for
YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless
rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x
needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries
is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the
value of the factor ypc * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the
NFL's passer rating computation.
More specifically, the equation
for OLE is a function of 10 metrics:
Pass attempts (PA)
Pass completions (PC)
Yards passing (TY)
Number of passing
Number of interceptions (I)
Yards per carry (YPC; sack
yardage figures into the calculation)
Rushing touchdowns (RT)
Offensive line penalty
Sacks allowed (SA)
The values for x and y
(Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)
The complete equation is as
(TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA
Note that this hypothetical computation
correlates with UW's won/lost record (9-4) for the 2013 season, with UW
dominating the statistic in its 9 wins and losing the stat in its 4 losses.