Dawgs' D trumps Troy's
The following grades the Huskies' positional
effort for the game against the USC Trojans. UW won the game 17-12. Photo
Credit Lynn Borland.
Click on this link for the statistics:
Stats USC Game
Quarterback; Grade C Plus -- Once
again Coach Chris Peterson gave true freshman Jake Browning the keys to his
brand new 2015 Dawgmobile. The road was bumpy, full of potholes and hairpin
curves, but the youth managed to finish the journey ahead of the Sarkmobile
driven by Cody Kessler and owned by head coach Steve Sarkisian.
Jake completed 16 of 32 passes for 136 yards, and one pick, his
efficiency rating being a mediocre 79.71. His PE on the
season is 130.0, a number that ranks ninth in the conference.
Browning, making his first road start against a Pac-12 opponent -- one that
was ranked, no less -- looked poised and confident for the most part. Most importantly, he
didn't give the game away.
The Huskies played three freshmen on
the offensive line: Trey Adams LT, Jesse Soesbee, RG, and Kaleb McCary, RT.
Offensive Line; Grade B Minus:
The Huskies Offensive Line Efficiency rating was 155.46 compared to the
Trojans' 141.45. Whoever wins this stat usually wins the game. The OL is the
most important positional unit on the team, which is why this stat tracks
with wins and losses. (See the calculation below).
Pass Receivers: Grade
B-: 164 yards passing, 9.6 yards per completion, and one touchdown
pass was sufficient enough to tread water in a game dominated by both
defenses. The touchdown pass came on a trick play early in the second half
27-yard pass from receiver Marvin Hall to Joshua Perkins.
Carriers; Grade C: Only 135 yards rushing won't cut it in the
PAC-12; however, Myles Gaskin ran for 134 yards and a touchdown, averaging
6.1 yards per carry. The Huskies rank eleventh in the conference in rushing
Special Teams: Grade
B - minus: UW had
touchback out of 4 kickoffs, averaging 64.5 yards per kickoff, while netting
40.8 yards. The Dawgs averaged 42.9 yards per punt. Cameron Van
Winkle booted a 21-yard field goal. In the fourth quarter, backed up on its
own 10 yard line with a 4th and 18, clinging to a 17-12 lead, UW turned to punter Korey Durkee, who
booted a 55-yarder that carried to the USC 35. Punt receiver Adoree Jackson
was thrown for a three-yard loss by Deontae Cooper and Cory Littleton at the
Defense; Grade A Minus:
The defense yielded 346 total yards and leads the Pac-12 in total defense.
The defense registered 5 sacks, a fumble recovery and two picks. Troy
completed just one of its thirteen third down conversions.
A win in tinseltown against a ranked opponent is
Computing a hypothetical per
game offensive line efficiency
Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's
passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its offensive line's penalty yards
and its sacks allowed. That is,
OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA
Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x
and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards;
SA = Sacks Allowed
In the game against USC, the OLE's
UW Offensive line efficiency = 97.2 + 3.8*20.57 +
1*5.09 - 15 - 5 * 2 = 155.46.
USC's Offensive line efficiency = 86.57 +
4.9*20.57 + 1*5.09 - 26 - 5 * 5 = 141.45
(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09
were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be
equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for
the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013
season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in
the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for
YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless
rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x
needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries
is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the
value of the factor ypc * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the
NFL's passer rating computation.
More specifically, the equation
for OLE is a function of 10 metrics:
Pass attempts (PA)
Pass completions (PC)
Yards passing (TY)
Number of passing
Number of interceptions (I)
Yards per carry (YPC; sack
yardage figures into the calculation)
Rushing touchdowns (RT)
Offensive line penalty
Sacks allowed (SA)
The values for x and y
(Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)
The complete equation is as
(TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y - OLPY - 5 * SA
Note that this hypothetical computation
correlates with UW's won/lost record (9-4) for the 2013 season, with UW
dominating the statistic in its 9 wins and losing the stat in its 4 losses.