Ducks post twelfth straight win against Dawgs

The following grades the Huskies' positional effort for the game against the Oregon Ducks. UW lost the game 26-20.

But first let me get my two cents in.

For us alums, losing to the Ducks for the twelfth consecutive time -- especially, in what seemed to be an off year for them, in a game played at Husky Stadium, no less -- was depressing, disappointing and disgusting.

Oregon's cause was helped by the return of Quarterback Vernon Adams, Jr, who did his usual number on the Dawgs' pass defense. Going into the game, UW ranked second in the Pac-12 in pass efficiency defense, with a rating of 102.6. Adams posted a superb 173.79 on the night, a number that stands out above the others.

(Note: In last year's game against Eastern Washington, Adams completed 31 out of 46 passes for 475 yards, with no picks and 7 touchdowns, his efficiency rating being 204.35).

In the fourth quarter, Adams' virtuoso performance was hampered by leg cramps, which offered some hope for Husky fans. But, alas, it was the Huskies who cramped out on the night.

Click on this link for the statistics: Stats Oregon Game

Quarterback; Grade C Plus -- True Freshman Jake Browning completed 19 of 30 passes for 199 yards, and one touchdown, his efficiency rating being  130.05. His PE on the season is 129.99.

Browning hurt his throwing shoulder late in the fourth quarter and was replaced by K. J. Carta-Samuels. Samuels led the final drive with 1:11 to go, a futile effort that ended in a pick by Ugo Amadi. Carta-Samuels went one for two with a PE of minus 24.8.

Offensive Line
; Grade B Minus: The Huskies Offensive Line Efficiency rating was 232.74 compared to the Ducks' 249.78. Whoever wins this stat usually wins the game. The OL is the most important positional unit on the team, which is why this stat tracks with wins and losses. (See the calculation below).

Pass Receivers: Grade B minus: 205 yards passing, 10.2 yards per completion, and one touchdown pass was sufficient enough to have won the game, providing the defense had contained Adams. To his credit, Browning found 10 different receivers.

Ball Carriers; Grade B: 180 yards rushing was an admirable effort. Myles Gaskin ran for 155 yards and a touchdown, averaging 8.6 yards per carry. The absence of Dwayne Washington had to hurt the Dawgs immeasurably.

Special Teams: Grade B - minus: UW had one touchback out of 5 kickoffs, averaging 62.0 yards per kickoff, while netting 30.6 yards. The Dawgs averaged 41.5 yards per punt. Cameron Van Winkle booted two field goals, one from 40 yards and another from 46 yards.

After Gaskin's 72-yard touchdown run, just before the end of the third quarter, Braylon Adison returned the ensuing kickoff 87 yards to the UW 9, where kicker Tristan Vizcaino made a touchdown saving tackle. The Dawgs' defense held Oregon to a missed field goal attempt from 30 yards out.

Defense; Grade D: The defense yielded 442 total yards. Oregon ran off 76 plays to the Huskies' 62 and won time of possession 30:51 to 29:09. Adams, Jr., posted a PE of 173.79, which in the final analysis was the most significant statistical factor in the game. Adams passed for two touchdowns and went pick-free. He was sacked three times. Another number of significance was posted by RB Royce Freeman, who had 27 carries for 138 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

Coaching; Grade D: The coaches need some study time in Suzzallo, followed by a nocturnal visit from Gil Dobie (1908-1916, 59-0-3). Dobie - his ghostly visage -- has been rumored to have haunted losing coaches at UW, though none of them will admit it for fear of a psychiatric evaluation at the med school.

Computing a hypothetical per game offensive line efficiency

Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its third-down conversions; its number of offensive plays; its offensive line's penalty yards and its sacks allowed. That is,

OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y + TDC * NOP - OLPY - 5 * SA

Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; TDC = third-down conversions; NOP = number of offensive plays; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards; SA = Sacks Allowed

In the game against Oregon, the OLE's were:

UW Offensive line efficiency = 120.38 + 6.0*20.57 + 1*5.09 + 62 * 5/13 - 20 - 5 * 4 = 232.74

UO Offensive line efficiency = 173.79 + 3.3*20.57 + 1*5.09 + 76 * 9/18 - 20 - 5 * 3 =  249.76

(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09 were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013 season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the value of the factor yuck * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the NFL's passer rating computation.

More specifically, the equation for OLE is a function of 12 metrics:

  • Pass attempts (PA)

  • Pass completions (PC)

  • Yards passing (TY)

  • Number of passing touchdowns (TD)

  • Number of interceptions (I)

  • Yards per carry (YPC; sack yardage figures into the calculation)

  • Rushing touchdowns (RT)

  • Third-down conversions (TDC)

  • Number of offensive plays (NOP)

  • Offensive line penalty yards. (OLPY)

  • Sacks allowed (SA)

  • The values for x and y (Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)

The complete equation is as follows:

OLE = (TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y + TDC * NOP - OLPY - 5 * SA

Note that this hypothetical computation correlates with UW's won/lost record (9-4) for the 2013 season, with UW dominating the statistic in its 9 wins and losing the stat in its 4 losses.

 

 

Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

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