Dawgs thrash Wildbrats

The following grades the Huskies' positional effort for the game against the Arizona Wildcats. UW won the game 49-3.

But first let me get my two cents in.

What a turnaround from last week's Stanford game, which the Huskies lost 31-14.

Both the defense and offense posted some nice numbers, combining to make it a miserable all-around night for the 'Cats, their coaches and their fans.

The Dawgs lead the conference in Scoring Defense, are second in Total Defense, and are first in Red Zone Defense. OLB Travis Feeny leads the Pac-12 in sacks.

Last season, in Washington's 27-26 loss to Arizona, the Dawgs attempted to run out the clock having a first down at their own 44. Rather than take a knee -- three times, say, and run the clock down to 6 seconds and fourth down -- the Huskies handed the pigskin off to running back Deontae Cooper, who was stripped of the ball by Tra'Mayne Bondurant. Derrick Turituri recovered for Arizona at the Washington 45 with 1:23 to go. Six plays later, UA had the ball on the UW 30. The Wildcats' Casey Skowron kicked a 47-yard field goal as time expired.

In regards to eschewing the old take-a-knee-play, the Seattle Times quoted Washington coach Chris Peterson as saying, "Well, with our chart we felt like we had to run the ball again and get a first down. They had one timeout left and that’s the information we got.”

But that was last year.

Click on this link for the statistics Stats Arizona Game

Quarterback; Grade A -- Back from injury, true Freshman Jake Browning completed 16 of 24 passes for 263 yards and four touchdowns. He ran from 12 yards out for another touchdown. Jake's pass efficiency on the night was outstanding: 213.72; his PE on the season stands at 139.9, which ranks seventh in the conference.

Offensive Line
; Grade A: The Huskies Offensive Line Efficiency rating was 363.79 compared to the Wildcats' 142.16. Whoever wins this stat usually wins the game. The OL is the most important positional unit on the team, which is why this stat tracks with wins and losses. (See the calculation below).

Pass Receivers: Grade A: 267 yards passing, 15.7 yards per completion, with 10 different receivers, including Browning, gave the Huskies a potent aerial attack on the night, as well as one to contend with in the conference.

Ball Carriers; Grade A: The Dawgs posted 201 yards rushing, highlighted by Dwayne Washington's 69-yard touchdown run. It was nice to see big Dwayne bust off a long one, joining Myles Gaskin as a legitimate threat in the Dawgs' ground arsenal.

Special Teams: Grade A: Tristan Vizcaino kicked off seven times, averaging 63.0 yards per kickoff, and had three touchbacks. Korey Durkey punted four times, averaging 40.2 yards per punt, and had one downed inside the 20.

Defense; Grade A: The defense yielded 330 total yards. Arizona's pass efficiency offense (quarterbacks Anu Solomon and Jerrard Randall combined)was limited to a meager rating of 85.84 on the night.

Coaching; Grade A: An impressive win, defensively and offensively.

Computing a hypothetical per game offensive line efficiency

Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its third-down conversions; its number of offensive plays; its offensive line's penalty yards and its sacks allowed. That is,

OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y + TDC * NOP - OLPY - 5 * SA

Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; TDC = third-down conversions; NOP = number of offensive plays; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards; SA = Sacks Allowed

In the game against Arizona, the OLE's were:

UW Offensive line efficiency = 210.51 + 5.6*20.57 + 4*5.09 + 61 * 5/11 - 0 - 5 * 2 = 363.79

Arizona Offensive line efficiency = 85.84 + 2.9*20.57 + 0*5.09 + 86 * 6/18 - 12 - 5 * 4 =  142.16

(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09 were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013 season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the value of the factor yuck * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the NFL's passer rating computation.

More specifically, the equation for OLE is a function of 12 metrics:

  • Pass attempts (PA)

  • Pass completions (PC)

  • Yards passing (TY)

  • Number of passing touchdowns (TD)

  • Number of interceptions (I)

  • Yards per carry (YPC; sack yardage figures into the calculation)

  • Rushing touchdowns (RT)

  • Third-down conversions (TDC)

  • Number of offensive plays (NOP)

  • Offensive line penalty yards. (OLPY)

  • Sacks allowed (SA)

  • The values for x and y (Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)

The complete equation is as follows:

OLE = (TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y + TDC * NOP - OLPY - 5 * SA

Note that this hypothetical computation correlates with UW's won/lost record (9-4) for the 2013 season, with UW dominating the statistic in its 9 wins and losing the stat in its 4 losses.

 

 

Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

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