SolarSixers throw Dawgs into the abyss
The following grades the Huskies' positional effort for the game against the
Arizona State Sun Devils. UW lost the game 2717.
But first let me get my two
cents in.
It's been a long, long time; that is 10straight losses to
ASU. UW's last victory over the SolarSixers was in 2001.
27 October
2001, Tempe, Arizona
With 7:12 remaining on the clock and trailing
3130, Washington mounted a drive starting from its own 10yard line. 14
plays later, UW had driven to the Arizona State 12yard line behind the
passing of Cody Pickett and the running of Willie Hurst and Rich Alexis. On
a third and two from the ASU 12, Hurst was stopped on the SolarSixers 11,
and ASU called a time out with 51 seconds remaining. On fourth and one,
Washington lined up to kick a field goal; ASU jumped offside and what had
been a seesaw battle until then was ended. With a first and goal to go,
Washington ran the clock down to 3 seconds, and John Anderson kicked a
30yard game winning field goal.
UW versus ASU: 15190.
Against ASU this year, not being able to run the ball in the second half (10
net rushing yards) and four fourth quarter turnovers sealed UW's fate. In
that half I thought I was watching the Cal game all over again the way
the SolarSixers dominated UW physically on both sides of the ball.
Washington held a 173 lead at the midway point, thoroughly dominating
the statistics, so much so, that UW ended up winning the offensive line
efficiency battle, 194.7 to 188.1.
The Huskies totaled 547 yards on
offense, won possession time and posted 27 first downs to ASU's 19.
If young Jake Browning had connected with his receivers on the long routes
they were open on, the outcome would have been much different; I doubt the
listless ASU team I saw in the first half would have had the moxie to fight
back in the second half had UW put more points on the board.
“It was just
right there,” UW defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski was quoted as
saying. “For three quarters, we were great. Fourth quarter, all of a sudden
the wheels come off.”
UW's final four possessions ended in an
interception, an interception, a fumble and an interception.
Click on this link for the statistics
Stats Arizona State Game
Quarterback; Grade C  True
Freshman Jake Browning completed 28 of 52 passes for 253
yards and one touchdown. He was intercepted three times. Jake's pass efficiency on
the night was 117.7; his PE on the season stands
at 132.4, which ranks eighth in the conference.
Offensive Line; Grade
B: The Huskies Offensive Line Efficiency rating was 194.7 compared to the
Devils' 188.1. Whoever wins this stat usually wins the game. The OL is the
most important positional unit on the team, which is why this stat tracks
with wins and losses. (See the calculation below).
Pass Receivers: Grade
B: 405 yards passing, 14.5 yards per completion, with a mix of 9 different
receivers, seemed adequate enough. There were some drops on catchable balls.
Ball
Carriers; Grade C: The Dawgs posted 142 yards rushing, averaging
4.2 yards per carry. Myles Gaskin ran 18 times for 108 yards, averaging 6.0
yards per carry. The Dawgs accumulated just 10 net yards rushing in the
second half, which put too much pressure on Browning.
Special Teams: Grade B
Minus:
Tristan Vizcaino kicked off four times, averaging 65.0 yards per kickoff,
and had two touchbacks. UW averaged 42.8 yards per punt, with two downed
inside the 20. Cameron Van Winkle booted one field goal from 35 yards out
and missed a critical 45yarder in the third quarter.
Defense; Grade B:
The defense yielded 397 total yards. ASU punted on its first six
possessions.
Coaching; Grade
D: More study time at Suzzallo is in order, followed by a long
sweaty session in the weight room, followed by a session watching all of the
presidential debates, both Republican and Democratic, so the coaches can learn
to lie to potential recruits with a smile on their faces. A nocturnal visit
from the ghost of Gil Dobie awaits those coaches who are botching,
bolloxing, and bungling their jobs on and off the field.
Computing a hypothetical per
game offensive line efficiency
Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's
passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns,
its thirddown conversions; its number of offensive plays; its offensive line's penalty yards
and its sacks allowed. That is,
OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y + TDC * NOP  OLPY  5 * SA
Where PEO = passefficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x
and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; TDC = thirddown
conversions; NOP = number of offensive plays; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards;
SA = Sacks Allowed
In the game against ASU, the OLE's
were:
UW Offensive line efficiency = 114.08 + 4.2 *20.57 +
1*5.09 + 86 * 3/14  10  5 * 4 = 194.7
ASU Offensive line efficiency = 136.92 + 3.3*20.57 +
2*5.09 + 77* 4/17  25  5 * 4 = 188.1
(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09
were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be
equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for
the Pac12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013
season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in
the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac12 averages for
YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless
rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x
needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries
is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the
value of the factor yuck * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the
NFL's passer rating computation.
More specifically, the equation
for OLE is a function of 12 metrics:

Pass attempts (PA)

Pass completions (PC)

Yards passing (TY)

Number of passing
touchdowns (TD)

Number of interceptions (I)

Yards per carry (YPC; sack
yardage figures into the calculation)

Rushing touchdowns (RT)

Thirddown conversions (TDC)

Number of offensive plays (NOP)

Offensive line penalty
yards. (OLPY)

Sacks allowed (SA)

The values for x and y
(Pac12 averages for the 2013 season)
The complete equation is as
follows:
OLE =
(TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y + TDC * NOP  OLPY  5 * SA
Note that this hypothetical computation
correlates with UW's won/lost record (94) for the 2013 season, with UW
dominating the statistic in its 9 wins and losing the stat in its 4 losses.

Richard Linde can be reached at
malamute@4malamute.com 
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