Dawgs Cleave Beaves

The following grades the Huskies' positional effort for the game against the Oregon State Beavers. UW won the game 52-7.

But first let me get my two cents in.

Besides winning the scoreboard, the Dawgs thoroughly dominated the statistics, e.g., Possession Time 41:22 to 18:38, Total Yards 482 to 257, and OL Efficiency 333.54 to 219.5.

With 5:24 left in the third quarter and the score 52-7, K. J. Carta-Samuels replaced Browning at quarterback, and the Huskies ran the ball with a mix of Lavon Coleman, Ralph Kine and Jomon Dotson trading carries for the remainder of the game.

By that time in the third quarter, most of the crowd had left and it was pretty much a snoozer from then on.

Click on this link for the statistics Stats Oregon State Game

Quarterback; Grade A Plus -- True Freshman Jake Browning completed 18 of 20 passes for 211 yards and four touchdowns.  Jake's pass efficiency on the evening was an astronomical 244.62; his PE on the season stands at 139.5, which ranks sixth in the conference.

Offensive Line
; Grade A: The Huskies Offensive Line Efficiency rating was 333.54 compared to the Beavers' 219.5. Whoever wins this stat usually wins the game. The OL is the most important positional unit on the team, which is why this stat tracks with wins and losses. (See the calculation below).

Pass Receivers: Grade a: 211 yards passing, 11.7 yards per completion, with a mix of 5 different receivers, seemed adequate enough. Carta-Samuels didn't throw a pass.

Ball Carriers; Grade A: The Dawgs posted 271 yards rushing, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Myles Gaskin ran 23 times for 127 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry.

Special Teams: Grade A: Tristan Vizcaino kicked off nine times, averaging 59.0 yards per kickoff, and had two touchbacks. Korey Durkey punted once, a 53 yarder that resulted in a touch back. Cameron Van Winkle booted one field goal from 32 yards out. In the first quarter, Dante Pettis returned a punt 89 yards for a touchdown, giving the Dawgs a 21-0 lead.

Defense; Grade A: The defense yielded 257 total yards and leads the league in Total Defense and Scoring Defense.

Travis Feeney's touchdown saving tackle on Paul Lucas' 76-yard run was the play of the game. Feeney stretched out and managed to grab Lucas' ankle. Garrett Owens missed a 36-yard field goal attempt and Lucas' long run went for naught.

Coaching; Grade A: From the Merchant of Venice:

"The quality of mercy is not strain'd,
It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven
Upon the place beneath. It is twice blest:
It blesseth him that gives and him that takes."

Computing a hypothetical per game offensive line efficiency

Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its third-down conversions; its number of offensive plays; its offensive line's penalty yards and its sacks allowed. That is,

OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y + TDC * NOP - OLPY - 5 * SA

Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; TDC = third-down conversions; NOP = number of offensive plays; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards; SA = Sacks Allowed

In the game against OSU, the OLE's were:

UW Offensive line efficiency = 232.97 + 4.6 *20.57 + 2*5.09 + 80 * 5/13 - 20 - 5 * 3 = 333.54

OSU  Offensive line efficiency = 80.24 + 6.4*20.57 + 1*5.09 + 46* 3/11 - 10 - 5 * 0 =  219.5

(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09 were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013 season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the value of the factor yuck * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the NFL's passer rating computation.

More specifically, the equation for OLE is a function of 12 metrics:

  • Pass attempts (PA)

  • Pass completions (PC)

  • Yards passing (TY)

  • Number of passing touchdowns (TD)

  • Number of interceptions (I)

  • Yards per carry (YPC; sack yardage figures into the calculation)

  • Rushing touchdowns (RT)

  • Third-down conversions (TDC)

  • Number of offensive plays (NOP)

  • Offensive line penalty yards. (OLPY)

  • Sacks allowed (SA)

  • The values for x and y (Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)

The complete equation is as follows:

OLE = (TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y + TDC * NOP - OLPY - 5 * SA

Note that this hypothetical computation correlates with UW's won/lost record (9-4) for the 2013 season, with UW dominating the statistic in its 9 wins and losing the stat in its 4 losses.

 

 

Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

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