Dawgs Dapple White Clad Cougs

The following grades the Huskies' positional effort for the game against the twentieth ranked Washington State Cougars. UW won the game 45-10.

But first let me get my two cents in.

Led by Myles Gaskin's 138 yards rushing and two touchdowns and the trio of Sidney Jones, Darren Gardenhire and Azeem Victor all returning turnovers for touchdowns in the second half, the Huskies, besides winning  the scoreboard, thoroughly dominated the statistics, e.g., Possession Time 37:28 to 22:32, Total Yards 443 to 319, and OL Efficiency 261.04 to 160.22.

Holding in check the best passing game in the country, the Huskies (6-6, 4-5 Pac-12) took advantage of seven turnovers and became bowl eligible by winning their sixth Apple Cup out of the last seven meetings.

The absence of starting quarterback Luke Falk who suffered an apparent concussion last week against Colorado had to hurt the Cougars immeasurably. Redshirt freshman Peyton Bender, making the first start of his career, passed for 288 yards and a touchdown and two picks. He had both of his interceptions returned for scores and on the game posted an anemic passing efficiency of 102.57. Falk ended the regular season with a PE of 148.8, a number that ranks fifth best in the Pac-12.

The Huskies lead the conference In Total Defense, Scoring Defense, and Red zone Defense.

Click on this link for the statistics Stats Washington State Game

Quarterback; Grade A Plus -- True Freshman Jake Browning completed 14 of 20 passes for 203 yards; he had one pick. Jake's pass efficiency on the evening was a credible 145.26; his PE on the season stands at 139.9, which ranks seventh in the conference.

Offensive Line
; Grade A: The Huskies Offensive Line Efficiency rating was 261.04 compared to the Cougars' 160.22. Whoever wins this stat usually wins the game. The OL is the most important positional unit on the team, which is why this stat tracks with wins and losses. (See the calculation below).

Pass Receivers: Grade a: 203 yards passing, 14.5 yards per completion, with a mix of 6 different receivers, seemed adequate enough.

Ball Carriers; Grade A: The Dawgs posted 240 yards rushing, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Myles Gaskin ran 32 times for 138 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry.

Special Teams: Grade B: Tristan Vizcaino kicked off eight times, averaging 60.0 yards per kickoff. Korey Durkey punted three times, averaging 36.0 yards per punt, with two inside the twenty. Cameron Van Winkle booted one field goal from 24 yards out and missed on a 33-yard attempt. Viscaino missed a 36-yard field goal attempt.

Defense; Grade A:
The defense yielded 319 total yards. Jones and Victor returned interceptions for touchdowns, and Gardenshire returned a fumble for a score.

Coaching; Grade A: From Hamlet, William Shakespeare:

"What a piece of work is a man! How noble in reason, how infinite in faculty! In form and moving how express and admirable! In action how like an angel, in apprehension how like a god! The beauty of the world. The paragon of animals. And yet, to me, what is this quintessence of dust? Man delights not me. No, nor woman neither, though by your smiling you seem to say so."

Computing a hypothetical per game offensive line efficiency

Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its third-down conversions; its number of offensive plays; its offensive line's penalty yards and its sacks allowed. That is,

OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y + TDC * NOP - OLPY - 5 * SA

Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; TDC = third-down conversions; NOP = number of offensive plays; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards; SA = Sacks Allowed

In the game against WSU, the OLE's were:

UW Offensive line efficiency = 145.26 + 4.4 *20.57 + 3*5.09 + 75 * 7/15 - 15 - 5 * 2 = 261.04

WSU  Offensive line efficiency = 102.57 + 2.6*20.57 + 0*5.09 + 70* 5/12 - 10 - 5 * 3 =  160.22

(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09 were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013 season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the value of the factor yuck * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the NFL's passer rating computation.

More specifically, the equation for OLE is a function of 12 metrics:

  • Pass attempts (PA)

  • Pass completions (PC)

  • Yards passing (TY)

  • Number of passing touchdowns (TD)

  • Number of interceptions (I)

  • Yards per carry (YPC; sack yardage figures into the calculation)

  • Rushing touchdowns (RT)

  • Third-down conversions (TDC)

  • Number of offensive plays (NOP)

  • Offensive line penalty yards. (OLPY)

  • Sacks allowed (SA)

  • The values for x and y (Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)

The complete equation is as follows:

OLE = (TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y + TDC * NOP - OLPY - 5 * SA

Note that this hypothetical computation correlates with UW's won/lost record (9-4) for the 2013 season, with UW dominating the statistic in its 9 wins and losing the stat in its 4 losses.



Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

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