Montlake Boys Trounce "Jersey Boys"

Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington. The following grades the University of Washington's effort position by position for its opening game of the 2016 season, this against the Rutgers University Scarlet Knights. UW won the game 48-13.

Missing last season due to injury, UW speedster John Ross put the rest of the Pac12 on notice by catching touchdown passes of 38 and 50 yards to help propel the Dawgs to a 24-zip first quarter lead over the "boys from New Jersey." QB Jake Browning also connected with Chico McClatcher on a 43-yard TD pass to start the scoring binge in the opening quarter.

In the second quarter, Ross returned a 92-yard kickoff to give the Huskies a 31-3 lead, propelling the notion that he is the fleetest footballer in the conference.

Cameron Van Winkle booted two field goals of 42 and 45 yards in length,
 and Tristan Vizcaino buried 5 of 8 kickoffs in the end zone.

Although surrendering 88 offensive plays to the Knights' high tempo offense, 14th ranked Washington's defense yielded just 304 total yards.

Disappointingly, RB Myles Gaskin was held to 57 yards rushing, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.

Click on this link for the statistics "Stats Rutgers Game

Quarterback; Grade A  -- True sophomore Jake Browning completed 18 of 27  passes for 287 yards, with 3 touchdowns against one pick. Jake's pass efficiency on the day was a most credible 185.2. He threw accurately and guided the Dawgs' offense like a senior quarterback.
 
Offensive Line
; Grade B Minus: The Huskies' Offensive Line Efficiency rating was 257.76 compared to Scarlet Knights' 159.97. Whoever wins this stat usually wins the game. The OL is the most important positional unit on the team, which is why this stat tracks with wins and losses. (See the calculation below).

The Huskies posted 91 yards rushing, averaging 3 yards per carry. Needless to say, the run blocking needs improvement.

Pass Receivers: Grade A: 289 yards passing, 14.4 yards per completion, with a mix of 9 different receivers, proved more than adequate.

Ball Carriers; Grade c: 91 yards rushing, averaging 3.0 yards per carry, doesn't cut the mustard.

Special Teams: Grade B: Vizcaino kicked off eight times, averaging 64.1 yards per kickoff, with five touchbacks. He averaged 34.2 yards on 4 punts. Van Winkle made two out of three field-goal attempts

Defense; Grade A:
The defense yielded 304 total yards; its defensive passing efficiency rating of 90.28 was superb.

Coaching; Grade A: From Macbeth, William Shakespeare:

"So well thy words become thee as thy wounds;
They smack of honor both. Go get him surgeons."

Our headline: read about the Montlake Boys by clicking here.  Read about the Jersey Boys by clicking here.

Computing a hypothetical per game offensive line efficiency

Our hypothetical measure is a function of a team's passing efficiency rating, its rushing yards per carry, its rushing touchdowns, its third-down conversions; its number of offensive plays; its offensive line's penalty yards and its sacks allowed. That is,

OLE = PEO + YPC * X + RT * Y + TDC * NOP - OLPY - 5 * SA

Where PEO = pass-efficiency offense; YPC = yards per carry; x and y = normalizing numbers; RT = rushing touchdowns; TDC = third-down conversions; NOP = number of offensive plays; OLPY = offensive line penalty yards; SA = Sacks Allowed

In the game against USM, the OLE's were:

UW Offensive line efficiency = 191.3 + 3.0 *20.57 + 0*5.09 + 59 * 3/12 - 0 - 5 * 2 = 257.76

Rutgers Offensive line efficiency = 90.28 + 2.8*20.57 + 1*5.09 + 88* 5/20 - 0 - 5 * 3 =  159.97

(*) The normalizing numbers X=20.57 and Y=5.09 were chosen so that YPC plus RT would be equivalent to a Passing Efficiency Rating of 100. X and Y are the averages for the Pac-12 stats involving YPC (X = 90/4.375) and RT (Y = 10/1.96) for the 2013 season. The numbers 90 and 10 were chosen so that YPC would have more weight in the computation than RT; the numbers 4.375 and 1.96 are the Pac-12 averages for YPC and RT. To guard against a meaningless rating resulting from a limited number of carries, the normalizing number x needs to be restricted. For one, if the number of carries is less than z then set x=1, with the value of z yet to be determined. Alternatively, the value of the factor yuck * x could be controlled in a similar way to the limits placed on the NFL's passer rating computation.

More specifically, the equation for OLE is a function of 12 metrics:

  • Pass attempts (PA)

  • Pass completions (PC)

  • Yards passing (TY)

  • Number of passing touchdowns (TD)

  • Number of interceptions (I)

  • Yards per carry (YPC; sack yardage figures into the calculation)

  • Rushing touchdowns (RT)

  • Third-down conversions (TDC)

  • Number of offensive plays (NOP)

  • Offensive line penalty yards. (OLPY)

  • Sacks allowed (SA)

  • The values for x and y (Pac-12 averages for the 2013 season)

The complete equation is as follows:

OLE = (TY*8.4+PC*100+TD*330-I*200)/PA + YPC * X + RT * Y + TDC * NOP - OLPY - 5 * SA

Note that this hypothetical computation correlates with UW's won/lost record (9-4) for the 2013 season, with UW dominating the statistic in its 9 wins and losing the stat in its 4 losses.

 

 

Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

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